This projected rise would mark the first increase in preventable child deaths this century, from an estimated 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million in 2025. Since 2000, child deaths had roughly halved.

Global Progress in Danger

“For decades, the world made steady progress in saving children’s lives. Now, as challenges mount, that progress is reversing,” said Bill Gates, chair of the Gates Foundation, in the annual Goalkeepers report.

Aid Cuts Spread Beyond the US

The report tracks progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals on reducing poverty and improving health. The report’s release was delayed this year due to uncertainty over global health funding.

International aid cuts began with the US earlier this year and later spread to other major donors like Britain and Germany. Global development assistance for health fell by nearly 27% compared to 2024.

These cuts contribute to the reversal in child mortality progress. Other factors include countries facing mounting debt and fragile health systems.

Future Projections

If aid cuts persist, the Gates Foundation warns that between 12 and 16 million more children could die by 2045. This year alone, the increase in deaths may match the 2023 figure, according to the latest WHO data.

The report’s figures rely on modeling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at Washington University.

Call to Action

Bill Gates urged governments and individuals to step up efforts. He emphasized the need for innovative tools and proven solutions, such as vaccination programs and investment in primary healthcare, to boost child health worldwide.